Football Rankings: RBs one analyst likes more than consensus

ECR stands for “Professional Agreement Status,” which refers to the middle class of the fantasy football industry and is often synonymous with ADP (different from space). This is an ongoing series of events will highlight the big difference between ECR and my situation.

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Breece Hall, New York Jets

ECRExplanation: RB3 vs. My positionDescription: RB2

Hall averaged 0.5 third PPR fantasy points (17.3) from Week 5 last season once he started seeing full snaps in his return from ACL surgery. Only Christian McCaffrey scored more touchdowns that season despite Hall playing for a New York offense that managed the second-fewest yards per game one (4.3). The Jets’ quarterbacks were a disaster without Aaron Rodgers, as New York averaged just 15.8 points per game (fourth-fewest) while give Hall a 43rd-and-red-zone rush; The Jets somehow had just one possession inside the five-yard line and didn’t have a field goal last season. Hall had just 3.3 rushing touchdowns – but he’s still a fantasy star.

He’s an exceptional back who somehow leads all RBs in YPC after the touchdown and yards per pass since entering the league. Hall has a better YPRR rate than CMC despite playing in the bottom-third and recovering from knee surgery.

Running back history shows real improvement in Year 2 after ACL surgery, and Hall already leads all RBs in receptions last season. Hall feels back to his old self, and a returning Rodger will be a huge upgrade at quarterback. The Jets have a strong defense and have improved their offensive line early in the draft and through free agency. Hall had the best points when his team was leading and the second-highest odds as a favorite last season, with the Jets favored in 14 of those games. 17 entering 2024.

Due to the dearth of Tier 1 RBs, Hall is the No. 1 player in the league. 2 on my board in 0.5 PPR teams, but his ECR is seventh. I’m closer to moving Hall to RB1 than RB3.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

ECR: RB8 vs. My Rank: RB6

Henry’s declining numbers over the past two seasons (a still scored 25 TDs) was more a product of the Titans’ poor offense than Henry’s performance; he remained explosive and placed third in YPC after meeting the packed boxes in 2023. He is 30 years old now, but Henry made an impression early in his career his, and he is also built differently. Henry’s rushing percentage dropped to 53% last year, yet he still led the league for the fourth time in five years with an offense that averaged 4.9 yards per game. each one.

It’s hard to understate how much improvement Henry has seen since moving from Tennessee to Baltimore this season. Henry has entered 120-plus eight-man tackles more than any RB over the past three seasons, while Lamar Jackson has helped a depleted Ravens RB team score an astounding fourth of the year the past. Gus Edwards benefited from short tons of yardage, and Henry’s style seems like a good fit for Baltimore’s offense; His career YPC jumped by more than a full yard with a shot and a shot (5.1 YPC).

Henry has nearly twice as many 0.5 PPR points in his career, and no team has led more than the Ravens last season. Henry has 98.4 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) with 65 touchdowns over 59 wins compared to 49.1 rushing yards (4.0) and just 15 points in 44 losses during his career. Baltimore is expected to win 11-plus games in 2024. The Ravens would love to give Henry 300 in an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game last season, and The King is stay motivated.

Henry’s ADP isn’t quite the gift it was earlier this summer, but he remains underappreciated on the prospect tables.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

ECRDescription: RB11 vs. My positionDescription: RB7

Achane averaged 0.5 PPR points (16.5) last year despite playing five or fewer snaps in two games and never covering 18 carries (or 38 snaps). He had the highest YPC (7.8) and the fastest DVOA of any running back in NFL history. Achane’s career rushing yards were 1,541 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns despite sharing the backfield with a RB who leads the NFL in rushing TDs.

Achane averaged 115 yards from scrimmage while playing 40% of the snaps. He led the league in yards after a touchdown per season among many other rushing teams. Achane outscored Mostert and had the same number of first-team goals as Rachaad White in just nine healthy games as a rookie, so he deserves the upper hand as well.

Even with a healthy Raheem Mostert, Achane got more chances per game (15.1) than Jahmyr Gibbs (14.0) did with David Montgomery. Mike McDaniel expects more Achans to play a bigger role in Year 2, too 32 years old Mostert has it is broad accident history. Miami’s running back accumulated 50+ points in 0.5 PPR last year more than any RB team since 2020, and a healthy Achane could explode in an extended role.

The argument against Achane comes down largely to health, as he costs over 30 bucks after playing nine full games while dealing with multiple injuries as a rookie. He’s 5-9 and 188 pounds, so asking for 250+ touches would be easy.

Achane is undoubtedly an incredibly creative player whose history is worthy of a comeback, but he also has the potential to win the league based on his ability and the potential for Mostert to go down. Even if Achane misses games, a few players can help you win your week if you are healthy.

Achane is a steal in Round 3.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

ECRDescription: RB21 vs. My positionCost: RB13

It’s usually best not to target 29-year-old running backs with a history of missing games, but Conner is at a very low level because of injuries to Trey Benson. Conner scored the most points by a RB since Week 13 last season and finished third in rushing yards, behind only Christian McCaffrey and Achane. Conner is an undersized running back who quietly led all RBs in 20+ yard rushes last season.

The Cardinals were a top-10 offense in Week 10 after Kyler Murray returned last year, while Arizona’s rushing attack led the NFL in YPC (5.3) and EPA in every effort. Murray should improve in his second year back from surgery, and the Cardinals added shortstop Marvin Harrison Jr. at the beginning of the plan. Trey McBride is looking like a star tight end, and Arizona had the ball with six seconds left on the game clock last year (although the QB game stalled before Murray returned).

Benson could end up being good insurance for Conner’s dream managers, but the third man still fighting for Arizona’s RB2 job, he had low athletic scores and while it is easy for him to steal many things. Conner will likely miss a few more games this season, but it can’t be overstated that ALL running backs are at high risk for injuries. And Conner has a real chance to be a fifth baseman when he’s healthy.

You don’t have to draft Conner where I put him, as he is the best defined “RB dead zone”.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

ECRDescription: RB32 vs. My positionCost: RB25

Spears was the only RB to force 25+ tackles on less than 100 carries last season, and he ranked third among running backs in tackles as a rookie . Spears recorded the fourth-most scrimmage yards (1,837) in his senior year in college, where he was most effective as a shooter; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shooting percentage last season.

Meanwhile, his competition for touchdowns has gone from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard admitted he didn’t feel fully fit coming off TightRope surgery until midway through last season, and there’s no doubt he’s improved since then. However, his numbers continued to be disappointing in the second half, and Pollard somehow finished just RB22 (11.5 FPPG) despite seeing a second redshirt of red spots (72) on the field behind a strong offensive line. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while running 75 fewer passes than Pollard last year.

Spears may not have a long NFL career, but he is a better bet than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be adjusted.