Pirates player Paul Skenes has become a national sensation this season. He had the best start since maybe Stephen Strasburg in 2010. The 2023 No. 1 pick. 1 overall became the first top hitter to make the All-Star team the following year and became the first pitcher to start the Midsummer Classic since 1995. .
With a major league start of 13, the results live up to the hype, if not exceed it. As Skenes prepares to face the Diamondbacks Sunday, he sits 6-1 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 103 hitouts against just 16 walks in 80 2/3 innings.
He has Cy Young level stats, as mentioned in watch our awards from last week. Only Chris Sale of the Braves ranks ahead of Skenes as the betting favorite. Fernando Valenzuela remains the only player to win the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award in the same year. Can Skenes make more history and win a Cy Young season that started less than a year after he was drafted?
Work will be a big part of the discussion, although Skenes is always talking about the way he is. Logan Webb leads the National League in innings pitched at 144 1/3. Dylan Cease, another Cy Young candidate, is second at 136 2/3. Five other pitchers have numbers in the 130s. The sale is at 123.
Despite the huge deficit, Skenes is fourth in WAR for National League baseball players. I don’t think this could be defeated if elections were held now. Can he make enough space? Let’s dive in.
If Skenes stays on schedule and makes every start, he’ll end up making 11 more (ending on Saturday, Sept. 28 at Yankee Stadium, by the way). He’s averaging about 6 1/3 innings per start now and even though he’s getting better and being allowed to work deep in games, let’s just leave it at that. Of course the Pirates cut him a couple of times going forward. If we count 6 1/3 innings in 11 starts, that adds up to 69 2/3 for the season.
That means he will have 150 1/3 innings.
Looking back at Cy Young winners from the past 15 years, here’s a five-inning summary (excluding 2020):
- Corbin Burnes, 167 IP, 2021
- Justin Verlander, 175 IP, 2022
- Blake Snell, 180 IP, 2023
- Robbie Ray, 193 1/3 IP, 2021
- Clayton Kershaw, 198 1/3 IP, 2014
Every Cy Young winner, outside of the shortened 2020 season, has thrown more than 200 innings going back to a pitcher (Eric Gagne in 2003). Prior to that, the last player to win the Cy Young in a non-shortened season, excluding those who were traded from one league to another (Rick Sutcliffe) was… no one.
Yes, there have only been five full-time starting pitchers to win the Cy Young with less than 200 innings pitched and all of them happened from 2014-23.
Skenes will look to follow in Burnes’ footsteps, but he is still about two innings shy here if he continues on this path.
That means Skenes will have to be better than the other stadium, right?
If he continues the way he has been the past few weeks, it’s reasonable to believe he could lead the WAR. He has a 1.90 ERA while Chris Sale is the qualified leader at 2.71. That’s enough command, but he probably won’t win the ERA title. A pitcher must work at least one inning in a team game to be eligible. It would be too aggressive for the Pirates to get him to 162 innings.
Skenes would lead in WHIP, 0.91 to Sale’s 0.95. He would be neck and neck with Tyler Glasnow and Dylan Cease in strikeout rate. He would be second in strikeout rate to Shota Imanaga. However, again, he will not be eligible to be on those leaderboards. Does that matter to voters? Is it okay?
He I can work his way into the strikeout leaders, as he has 103 while Gore’s 122 of MacKenzie is good for 10 now.
It will be fun to follow. I think, looking at the reading statistics, that Skenes winning the award would not be. Voters are people and most like a good story, though, so it’s possible that the facts are there. Also, Skenes has done unprecedented things, as mentioned above with the All-Star Game. Knowing that, why should we consider him important to achieve something that never happened before?
It’s an uphill battle, but Skenes has a real chance to win the Cy Young.
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